The chances of a 2026 rate hike rose significantly today with annual CPI inflation rising to an eighteen month high of 3.1%. We think our new laser-focussed-on-inflation RBNZ Governor will not be amused. To start with, the quarterly increase of 0.6% was a big miss for a central bank that was forecasting 0.2% for the period. The miss was greater on tradables than non-tradables but both came in higher than anticipated. Tradables rose 0.7% against a 0.1 pick and non-tradables 0.6% against a 0.4% prediction. The miss is one thing but more problematic is the fact that the headline reading has a three in front of it. This ... (full story)