In the week ending January 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 198,000 to 199,000. The 4-week moving average was 201,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2024 when it was 200,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 205,000 to 205,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending January 10, unchanged from the ... (full story)

Following last week's plunge back below 200k, analysts expected a small rise to 209k this week but the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remained flat at 200k. Notably, as is usual at this time of year, non-seasonally-adjusted claims spiked... {chart} ...basically hovering at its lowest levels since 1969... {chart}Continuing jobless claims also ticked down (to 1.849 million Americans) - the lowest since November... {chart}All of which fits with the ebbing of rate-cut expectations for this year...{chart} ...likely much to the chagrin of President Trump. (full story)