Then the outcome could depend on who the new Chair is. If it's Kevin Hassett, we're of the opinion that he won't have a material impact beyond his own vote. If it were, for example, an outside shot like Rick Rieder (or even Scott Bessent!), we'd expect a potentially bigger impact on the wider votes on the committee, partly as they'd better represent the outside voice of business. But basically, to swing the Fed, the MAGA doves would need to swing three of the remaining eight FOMC members to have a material and definite swing effect on rate decisions. While unlikely, let's explore its implications for a moment, if ... (full story)