Data collection issues stemming from the longest-ever government shutdown led to a surprisingly soft November CPI report. Most, although not all, of these distortions should be unwound in the December report. Although we expect the monthly pace of consumer price inflation to pickup in December relative to November's suppressed pace, we look for the year-over-year rate of headline and core CPI, at 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, to remain lower in December than in September and indicate that inflation has resumed its descent. • The 43-day shutdown led to BLS carrying forward the September price level to October for ... (full story)