ECB Governing Council Press Conference - 18 December 2025

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Its updated assessment reconfirms that inflation should stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term. The new Eurosystem staff projections show headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation has been revised up for 2026, mainly because staff now expect services inflation to decline more slowly. Economic growth is expected to be stronger than in the September projections, driven especially by domestic demand. Growth has been revised up to 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 and is expected to remain at 1.4% in 2028. The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of m ECB Holds Deposit Facility Rate At 2.00%; As Expected - Holds Main Refinancing Rate At 2.15% - Holds Marginal Lending Facility At 2.40% *ECB NOT PRE-COMMITTING TO A PARTICULAR RATE PATH *ECB TO FOLLOW DATA-DEPENDENT, MEETING-BY-MEETING APPROACH *ECB RAISES ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR NEXT TWO YEARS ECB UPDATED ASSESSMENT RECONFIRMS THAT INFLATION SHOULD STABILISE AT THE 2% TARGET IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

ECB's President Lagarde: The economy has been resilient. ECB's President Lagarde: Domestic demand main growth engine in the years ahead. *LAGARDE: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A DRAG ECB's President Lagarde: Forward-looking indicators suggest wage growth to ease ECB's President Lagarde: Trade tensions have eased.

At its meeting ending on 17 December 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75%. Four members voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4%. CPI inflation has fallen since the previous meeting, to 3.2%. Although above the 2% target, it is now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term. Reflecting restrictive monetary policy, and consistent with evidence of subdued economic growth and building slack in the labour market, pay growth and services price inflation have continued to ease. Monetary policy is being set to ensure CPI inflation settles sustainably at 2% in the medium term, which involves balancing the risks around achieving this. The risk from greater inflation persistence has become somewhat less pronounced since the previous meeting, while the risk to medium-term inflation from weaker demand remains. The extent of further easing in monetary policy will depend on the evolution of the outlook for inflation. The restrictiveness of policy has fallen as Bank BoE's Bailey Switches Vote To Rate Cut - Bailey Says We Still Think Rates Are On Gradual Downward Path - Bailey: With Every Cut, How Much Further We Go Becomes ‘Closer Call’ - Staff Forecast Zero Growth In Q4 GDP (Nov Forecast: +0.3% Q/Q), Underlying Growth Around 0.2% Q/Q BoE's Taylor: Neutral around 3%, should head there sooner. BoE's Lombardelli: CPI upside risks are a worry, we may need slower easing. BoE’s Greene: CPI risks to downside, backs cautious easing. BoE's Breeden: Upside risks to inflation have diminished. BoE's Pill: Easing case…