The Pulse: Crypto Risk Review

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up through September. More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months. In support of its goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE: pic.twitter.com/mc1yqrnwIP *FED SAYS SCHMID, GOOLSBEE DISSENT IN FAVOR OF NO RATE CHANGE FOMC: POLICY STATEMENT NO LONGER SAYS UNEMP RATE HISTORICALLY LOW BUT THAT 'JOB GAINS HAVE SLOWED THIS YEAR;' UNEMP RATE 'HAS EDGED UP THRU SEPT' #FOMC #FederalReserve #economy

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on December 9–10, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. FED MEDIAN RATE FORECAST (NEXT 2 YRS) ACTUAL 3.125% (FORECAST 3.125%, PREVIOUS 3.125%) $MACRO Fed median unemployment projection 4.5% in '25, 4.4% in '26. FOMC: DOT PLOT SEES ONE MORE CUT NEXT YEAR; RESERVES POLICY UPDATED WITH NEW PURCHASES OF SHORT-TERM TREASURIES #FOMC #FederalReserve #economy