The words ‘trade’, ‘Trump’ and ‘turbulence’ pretty accurately sum up how the US economy has evolved over the course of the last year, though by and large the private sector has succeeded in ‘muddling through’ despite a huge amount of uncertainty clouding the outlook. Said uncertainty should begin to lift in 2026, with the Trump Admin’s policy approach now largely set, and with the FOMC set to continue to remove policy restriction, as the fed funds rate falls back to a neutral level. Having already delivered two 25bp cuts in September and October, plus with another such cut likely to be delivered at the December ... (full story)