The market figured out a holiday recipe that works well: A Healthy Dose of Fed Puts. A Dash of Trade Hopes. A Smidge more Fed Puts because you can never have enough Fed Puts. In the past 5 trading days (including Friday November 21st): The Nasdaq 100 is up 5.7% (outpacing the “rotation” trade of the S&P 500 Equal Weight which is up 3% in those same trading days). The probability of a Fed cut at the December meeting spiked to 83% from 35% (well within the range where the Fed would be unlikely to disappoint). 10s rallied as well, though “only” from 4.07% to 4.02%. Bitcoin, which traded below $82,000 on the 21st, has ... (full story)