The minutes of the FOMC’s October meeting, released today, made official what a majority of Fed speakers have been saying for weeks: Unless the data changes drastically, there is not much chance of a December rate cut, and the Treasury market adjusted to it: The 6-month Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points today and closed at 3.83%, well within the Fed’s current target range of 3.75% to 4.0% (shaded area). Just before the Fed’s October rate cut, it had dropped to 3.75% on a downward trajectory to price in the next rate cut in December, but then it reversed. Traders and algos scrutinize everything that the Fed ... (full story)