We look for U.S. real GDP growth of 2.3% (annual average) in 2026. The improved outlook reflects a more supportive fiscal policy environment, a less restrictive monetary policy setting and a tariff regime that is not characterized by near-constant escalation as it was this year. The resilient consumer continues to help shore up economic activity, though consumer spending is not poised to be an outperforming driver of growth in 2026. Tax policy changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) offer some relief in the year ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income households, where help is needed most. Business ... (full story)