The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 continued through the end of the month. According to Polymarket — a blockchain-based prediction market — there is nearly 50% probability that the shutdown will carry on past mid-November (Exhibit 1). A variety of macro risks weighed on markets during October, including the shutdown but also the threat of higher tariffs, emerging pressures in credit markets, and guidance from the Federal Reserve that another rate cut in December is not a done deal. Nonetheless, innovation in the digital assets industry continued apace, potentially setting up markets for recovery ... (full story)