Suddenly, a Bank of England rate cut on 6 November doesn’t look like such a remote possibility. Having virtually written it off, markets are now pricing a 25% chance of a 25bp cut. Inflation has almost certainly peaked. Food inflation – a critical concern at the BoE this summer – fell back in September and is now running half a percentage point below official forecasts. Services inflation looks better too; the Bank’s favoured measure of “core services” has slipped below 4%, we estimate. Private-sector wage growth, another key metric for the Bank, has also slowed markedly and is set to end the year below 4%, down from ... (full story)