October has delivered broadly hawkish hard data for the Bank of Canada. The September jobs report showed solid 60k employment gains while unemployment held stable at 7.1%. Earlier this week, headline inflation (also for September) rose faster than consensus to 2.4%, with both core measures – median and trim – also accelerating by 0.1-0.2% above 3.0%. Yet, markets are pricing in 21bp of easing for the 29 October meeting. We are aligned with the consensus majority in expecting a 25bp cut to 2.25% next week. The rationale lies – once again – in the bleak Canadian economic outlook. The Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business ... (full story)