There is a lot going on in the world of macro, and much of it is barely coherent. Let’s go through some of the major points. First up, the USA is in a data blackout, and therefore there hasn’t been much economic news. The shutdown is creating some uncertainty, but not a lot of real world damage yet as a few thousand jobs look set to be cut, and a few hundred thousand people are waiting for a paycheck. My default stance on these shutdowns is that they are irrelevant, but that might not be the case here as the political climate is unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Second, there has been a series of crazy ... (full story)