The government shutdown may have altered the September CPI release date, but it hasn’t changed the stubborn state of inflation. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.4% last month, underpinned by a jump in energy prices, which would lift the year-over-year rate to a 16-month high of 3.1%. Core inflation likely rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month, holding the year-over-year rate steady at 3.1%. Beneath the surface, we expect goods inflation to stay elevated due to continued tariff pass-through, while an easing in primary shelter costs should help cool services inflation. We are not concerned about the federal ... (full story)