Bitcoin: Is UPtober Over Already?

In April, the United States shook global trade norms by announcing sweeping tariffs. Given the complexity and fluidity of the moment, our April report offered a range of estimates for the growth downgrade, from modest to significant, depending on the ultimate severity of the trade shock. Six months on, where are we? The good news is that the growth downgrade is at the modest end of the range. The reasons are clear. The United States negotiated trade deals with various countries and provided multiple exemptions. Most countries refrained from retaliation, keeping instead the trading system largely open. The private sector also proved agile, front-loading imports and speedily re-routing supply chains. As a result, the increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far. We now project global growth at 3.2 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year, a cumulative downgrade of 0.2 percentage point since our forecast a year earlier. IMF forecasts global headline inflation to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, from 5.8% in 2024. IMF Predicts U.S. Economy Growth To Be 2.0% In 2025, Slightly Up From 1.9% In July, And 2.1% In 2026, Slightly Higher Than 2.0%; 2024 Growth Was 2.8% IMF predicts China will grow by 4.8% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, same as July forecasts, citing weak demand and a fragile property sector. IMF Forecasts 2025 Global Real GDP Growth At 3.2% Vs 3.0% In July Due To Less-Severe Trade Shocks, Easier Financial Conditions Than Expected - 2026 Global Growth At 3.1%, Flat With July Forecast; 2024 Growth Was 3.3% -World Economic Outlook