We expect a resilient consumer, tentative factory momentum, split regional signals, tariff pressure on prices, and a cooler jobs pulse. This article lays out what to watch and how markets might move. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed regional manufacturing surveys (Philadelphia strength vs. Empire softness), tariff-linked price pressures, and a labor market that’s cooling at the margin. Our base case triangulates the recent macro tape (resilient retail sales, modest factory uptick), mixed regional manufacturing surveys (Philadelphia strength vs. ... (full story)