The US job market is definitely weakening below most estimates of lowered breakeven rates in light of tighter immigration policy. When paired with Chair Powell’s pivot at Jackson Hole, the result cements a rate cut on the 17th. The residual questions are how big and/or how frequent. First, the results. Payrolls were up by only 22k (107k in four months) and very close to Scotia’s below consensus estimate within very noisy bands. It’s the fourth month in a row for weak payrolls (chart 1). The reasons were somewhat mixed in terms of the data drivers. In my opinion, they are less mixed in terms of the broad macro forces ... (full story)