With a large number of European Central Bank officials having returned from the summer break with rather hawkish comments, we are folding and expect the ECB to stay on hold at next week’s meeting. Still, be it because we are sore losers or there are still good dovish arguments, a rate cut next week or later this year should not be entirely ruled out. The minutes of the July meeting, as well as official ECB comments since the end of the summer break, have stressed that the bar for yet another rate cut from the central bank is set high. At least at first glance, several more favourable developments over the summer have ... (full story)