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Polymarket bettors see 43% chance of U.S. government shutdown in 2025
Crypto traders are pricing in political risk, giving a 43% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before the end of 2025, according to blockchain prediction platform Polymarket. Polymarket shows a 43% probability of a shutdown, up 18% in the past 24 hours, with total trading volume surpassing $1.22 million. Traders can buy “Yes” shares at $32 or “No” shares at $42, with pricing reflecting the likelihood of each outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) officially announces a government shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations before December 31, 2025, at ... (full story)