There’s almost no doubt that the Bank of England will cut rates down to 4% (from 4.25% currently) at its 7 August meeting. But that seemingly cautious action, which will continue a well-established pattern of quarterly rate cuts, masks stark divisions among policymakers on what to do next. A three-way divide looks highly likely, with some officials voting for no change, a 25bp move and a more aggressive 50bp cut. The question looming over this meeting is whether a more worrisome deterioration in the jobs market is imminent. Slack is undoubtedly building. Payrolled employee numbers have fallen in seven out of the past ... (full story)