2025 and 2026 consensus forecasts for GDP growth have fallen from 2.2% to 1.5% since the start of the year, with the consumer at the heart of the problem. Sentiment has soured and this has led to consumer spending plateauing over the past six months after having been the engine of growth since the end of the pandemic. The reasons for this are threefold. Firstly, households quickly recognised that they would be the ones to pay the bulk of the tariff cost despite President Trump declaring that it would be foreigners who pay. With a renewed hike of tariffs on many key trading partners in recent days, the sense that ... (full story)