The headline employment data for June generally were encouraging. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147K last month, clearing a relatively low consensus forecast of 106K. Revisions to job growth in May and April were modestly positive. The unemployment rate fell by one tenth to 4.1%, and in a separately released report, initial and continuing jobless claims were roughly unchanged in the most recent week for which we have data. But, underneath the surface, the details were less encouraging and generally were consistent with a cooling labor market. The breadth of hiring was once again quite narrow. An unusually large jump ... (full story)