BoE Gov Bailey: A big turnaround overnight with the oil price

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' ...

Thanks to the organizers for inviting me to speak on this distinguished panel. I know that many of you in the audience are familiar with the Federal Reserve’s responsibility for setting monetary policy in the United States. Less well known is how the Federal Reserve System is structured to carry out all of its responsibilities to support the economy and financial system. So before I share my views on the outlook for the US economy, let me give you a brief Fed primer. As always, the views I express today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.1 The Fed is a decentralized, public–private system uniquely capable of serving the United States’ economic and financial interests free from short-term political pressures. Monetary policy actions are undertaken by the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, which is made up of the 12 presidents of the Reserve Banks and the seven governors at the Board of Governors in Washington DC. The 12 Reserve Bank presidents rotate voting years, apart from the president of the New York Fed, who is a permanent voting member and vice chair of the committee. Whether voting or not, all 19 of us speak, listen, and learn from each other at every meeting. Besides setting monetary policy, the Fed’s main functions are promoting financial stability, bank supervision and regulation, consumer protection and community development, and supporting the US payments system. A quick note about our payments work: the Cleveland Fed is one of several Reserve Banks that supports the government’s payments services. This includes collecting Fed's Hammack: i don't see any imminent case to cut interest rates. FED’S HAMMACK: RATE POLICY COULD BE ‘ON HOLD FOR QUITE SOME TIME’ AS FED SEEKS CLARITY Fed's Hammack: I supported the Fed's decision to hold rates steady at the June FOMC. Fed's Hammack: Fed policy is modestly restrictive.

Now that we have made PEACE abroad, we must finish the job here at home by passing “THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” and getting the Bill to my desk, ASAP. It will be a Historic Present for THE GREAT PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, as we begin the Celebratio...

POWELL: US NOT IN RECESSION POWELL: MANY PATHS ARE POSSIBLE POWELL: COULD SEE INFLATION COME IN NOT AS STRONG AS EXPECT POWELL: IF THAT'S THE CASE THAT WOULD SUGGEST CUTTING SOONER POWELL: ALSO WEAKNING LABOR MARKET WOULD SUGGEST CUTTING SOONER POWELL: IF INFLATION, LABOR MARKET STRONG, COULD CUT LATER POWELL: FED PROJECTIONS ARE FOR INFLATION TO MOVE UP BECAUSE OF TARIFFS Fed's Powell: The significant majority of policymakers feels it will be appropriate to reduce rates later this year. The story has been evolving, and our thinking has been adapting. Fed’s Powell: Reason We Are Not Cutting Rates Is That Forecasts In And Out Of Fed Expect Meaningful Increase In Inflation This Year - Existing Data Make Good Argument For Rates At Neutral

BOE Governor Bailey States That Current Policy Is Tight and Limiting BoE Gov. Bailey: The path for rates is downward. BoE Gov. Bailey: UK's underlying growth not as strong as Q1 GDP reading. BoE Gov. Bailey: The UK's high savings ratio should change at some point. BoE Gov. Bailey: QT review will be interesting this year, because of the steepening of the yield curve.