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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US Inched Down in May
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US ticked down by 0.1% in May 2025 to 99.0 (2016=100), after declining by 1.4% in April (revised downward from –1.0% originally reported). The LEI has fallen by 2.7% in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the previous six months. "The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index. However, ... (full story)
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From cnbc.com|Jun 20, 2025|69 commentsFederal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that he doesn’t expect tariffs to boost inflation significantly so policymakers should be looking to lower interest rates as early as next month. In a CNBC interview, the central banker said he and his colleagues should move slowly but start to ease as inflation is now longer a major economic threat. “I think we’re in the position that we could do this and as early as July,” Waller said during a “Squawk Box” interview with CNBC’s Steve Liesman. “That would be my view, whether the committee would go along with it or not.” The comments come two days after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold its key interest rate steady, the fourth straight hold following the last cut in December. President Donald Trump, who nominated Waller as a governor during his first term in office, has been hectoring the Fed to lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs on the $36 trillion national debt. Fed's Waller: Central Banks Should Look Through Tariff Effects On Inflation - CNBC - Do Not Think Inflation Impact From Tariffs Will Be Big, Trend Is Looking Good - The Fed Is In Position As Early As July For Cuts - Not Sure If Committee Would Go Along But The Data Is Good,… WALLER: THE PROCESS SHOULD START SLOW TO BE SURE THERE ARE NO SURPRISES, IF THERE IS A SHOCK THE FED COULD PAUSE WALLER: SO FAR THE DATA HAS BEEN FINE, WITH NO REASON TO WAIT MUCH LONGER TO CUT WALLER: THE TARIFFS SHOULD POSE A ONE OFF LEVEL EFFECT ON PRICES AND NOT BE A…
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From federalreserve.gov|Jun 20, 2025|1 commentThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate longterm interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society. Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important role in stabilizing the economy in response to these disturbances. The Committee’s primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent with maximum employment and price stability over the longer run has declined relative to its historical average. Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be constrained by its effective lower bound more frequently than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee judges that downward risks to employment and inflation have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its full range of to Fed Report: Still early to assess tariff impact on economy. Fed's Monetary Policy Report Indicates Inflation Is 'Somewhat Elevated' and Job Market Remains In 'Solid Shape' Fed Report: Current Fed policy is well positioned for what lies ahead. Fed Report Indicates Deterioration In Liquidity Across Equity, Corporate Bond, And Municipal Bond Markets , But Recent Improvements Noted Despite Ongoing Sensitivity To Trade Policy News .
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