Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Does the Negative GDP Mean We’re in a Recession? We got a huge data dump on Wednesday including the first estimate of Q1 GDP which came in marginally negative at -0.3%. Net exports and government subtracted a total of 5.08% with exports making up the majority of that. But you had a lot of conflicting things going on under the surface. There was a large inventory build likely in anticipation of tariffs and a very soft consumption component at just 1.21%. If you backed out inventories and exports, which can be hugely volatile, then GDP came in at 2.5% year ... (full story)