The initial estimate of fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth came in at 2.3% annualized, down from 3.1% in the third quarter. This was near our estimate of 2.2%, but below the consensus forecast looking for a 2.6% pace. It was another good year with growth coming in at 2.8% year/year in 2024, just a touch lower than 2023’s 2.9% pace. On a Q4/Q4 basis, GDP growth in 2024 was 2.5%, down from 3.2% in 2023. No matter how you measure it, growth was still running a little hot in 2024—markedly above what most economists consider longer-term potential growth. A bigger than forecast surge in real consumer spending (+4.2%) and ... (full story)