It was ‘good news is bad news’ for US Payrolls which were a touch better than expected and seen as too solid to support a pivot narrative. Headline payrolls were 263k vs. 255k expected, with only a small upward revision to the prior two months of 11k. Instead, markets reacted to the unemployment rate which fell two tenths to 3.5% vs. 3.7% expected, and to the participation rate which fell a tenth to 62.3% vs. 62.4%. The failure of the participation rate to rise will come as a disappointment to the Fed and to the ‘Fed pivot’ narrative. The one encouraging sign in the report was average hourly earnings which were as ... (full story)