US Non-Farm Employment Change
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
- US Non-Farm Employment Change Graph
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
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Nov 1, 2024 | 12K | 106K | 223K |
Oct 4, 2024 | 254K | 147K | 159K |
Sep 6, 2024 | 142K | 164K | 89K |
Aug 2, 2024 | 114K | 176K | 179K |
Jul 5, 2024 | 206K | 191K | 218K |
Jun 7, 2024 | 272K | 182K | 165K |
May 3, 2024 | 175K | 238K | 315K |
Apr 5, 2024 | 303K | 212K | 270K |
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- US Non-Farm Employment Change News
US payrolls ground to a halt with a +12k print while the more volatile household survey posted a decline of -368k. Bear in mind that the 90% confidence intervals are +/-130k for payrolls and +/-600k for the very noisy household measure. The payroll number would have even weaker yet had it not been for a wonky seasonal adjustment factor. I’ll explain why all of this should be ignored and probably will be ignored by the FOMC next week. First the data, and then I’ll turn to the massive caveats. The weak estimates cited above were ...
The October jobs report shows payrolls increasing by just 12k while there were net downward revisions of 112k to the previous 2 months. This was versus a consensus forecast of 100k that took into account the prospect of weakness from significant strike action during the month and a measurement hit due to hurricane-related disruption. Unemployment remains at 4.1%, as expected, while wages rose 0.4% month-on-month. We knew strikes were going to subtract 44k from the total, but we were somewhat in the dark on the hurricane hit. The ...
Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million. (See table A-1.) This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. post: Annnd my favorite part....the revisions The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in…U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October, far less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1% Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented hiring plans. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. It was the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall. Along with that, the report noted the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton but said “it is not possible to quantify the net effect” of the storms on the jobs total. Elsewhere, the bureau said average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month, slightly higher than the estimate, though the 4% 1
The first of what promises to be two tumultuous weeks is winding down. The US jobs data is the last big event. It is widely recognized that it will be skewed to the downside because of hurricanes and some mostly temporary factors. Anticipating the market’s reaction is also complicated by the weekend, and reports that Iran may strike back at Israel (through bases in Iraq?), and next Tuesday's US election, and five G10 central bank meetings next week. The US dollar is mostly firmer but consolidating against the G10 currencies. Emerging ...
Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show a steady unemployment rate even as storms and strikes put a temporary dent in hiring. Payrolls probably rose by 105,000 in October following September’s 254,000 increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The range of expectations is wide — from a 10,000 decline to a 180,000 increase. Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.1% in the report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The numbers will complicate the picture ...
Everyone is focused on the Non-Farm Payroll number today, but is everyone forgetting that the US manufacturing remains in contraction? Let's dig in.
Powerful hurricanes and a major labor strike could take a chunk out of the nonfarm payrolls count for October, which is expected to be the slowest month for job creation in nearly four years. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report Friday that payrolls expanded by just 100,000 on the month, held back by hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as the strike at Boeing. If their prediction is accurate, it would be the lowest job total since December 2020 and a huge drop from September’s 254,000. The ...
The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of October 2024 is 117,500. If 117,500 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark the lowest number since April 2024. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 203,200. September 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 compared to the median estimate of 145,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 ...
Released on Nov 1, 2024 |
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