UK BOE Monetary Policy Report

The Bank of England kicked off its easing cycle today with a 25bps policy rate cut to 5.00%. The move was in line with the bias of markets and economists going into the decision, but with ‘only’ 15bps priced in and practically all analysts calling it ‘too close to call’ it really looked like anyone’s guess for what the Bank would decide today. We were marginally in favour of a rate hold today followed by a cut in September. Instead, we will probably see the inverse, with a cut today and a hold at the next meeting, as guided by the ...

Our Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides what monetary policy action to take. The MPC sets and announces policy eight times a year (roughly once every six weeks). In this video, the MPC discusses the decisions taken in August 2024 and answers questions from the press.

Financial markets reckon Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is a 50:50 call between the first 25bp rate cut and another ‘on hold’ decision. We’re leaning towards a cut, though we agree nothing is for certain. We know that this week’s decision will hinge on a handful of committee members who felt the June decision was “finely balanced”. We’ve heard very little from officials since the general election was called in June, and that means it’s tricky to gauge how they are interpreting the recent upside news on services inflation. This ...

Forecasters are very unsure about which way this month’s BoE MPC announcement will go but, on balance, seem to expect what would be the first cut in Bank Rate since March 2020. However, if so, it is likely to be a very close vote. June saw a relatively clear 7-2 split in favour of no change but official comments since then have hinted that the easing camp might now have a small majority. That said, uncertainty has been heightened by the blackout period for central bank rhetoric in the run up to the 4 July general election and with ...

The Bank of Japan has barely left the headlines lately. Whether it’s speculation about rate hikes, the constant hints about bond tapering or suspicions of intervention in foreign exchange markets, Governor Ueda has certainly been making his mark since taking over. Next week’s gathering on July 30-31 looks set to give the bank more prime airtime as policymakers have already flagged that a decision will be made at this meeting on how much to reduce bond purchases by. Reuters has reported that the current monthly purchases of six ...