NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

Annual consumers price inflation was 3.1 percent in the March quarter. The Middle East conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. Inflation is expected to peak at 4.3 percent in the September quarter and to return to the 2 percent target mid-point in mid2027. Currently, core inflation, wage growth, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with inflation returning to the 2-percent target mid-point over the medium term. The global economic backdrop remains uncertain. Supply chain disruptions, higher prices for petrochemicals, and a more fragmented global trading environment are impacting the outlook. Growth will vary across countries, reflecting differences in energy intensity, fiscal support, and exposure to AI investment. On balance, New Zealand’s trading partners are expected to see weaker growth and higher inflation. Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weaker confidence and spending. For some firms, rising costs are squeezing profit margins and curbing investment and hiring intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak. Economic conditions continue to differ across regions and sectors, with high commodity RBNZ Says headline inflation is projected to climb to 4.3% in Q3 before easing back to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027. RBNZ SAYS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK. ... RBNZ Says softer demand conditions and higher unemployment should help contain inflation pressures over time. RBNZ SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION TRENDS, WAGE GAINS, AND LONGER-TERM EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ALIGNED WITH INFLATION EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO TARGET. ...

Annual consumers price inflation was slightly above the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band at the end of 2025. Increases in food and electricity prices and local council rates were the biggest contributors to above-target inflation. The economy is at an early stage in its recovery. With ongoing strength in commodity prices, economic activity in the agricultural sector and regional New Zealand remains strong. Although residential and business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending. The labour market is stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated. House price growth remains weak, dampening household wealth and inclination to spend. In response to previous cuts in the OCR, economic growth is broadening across sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, construction and some retail. Economic growth is expected to increase over 2026. RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND SEES OFFICIAL CASH RATE AT 3% IN MARCH 2029 RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND SEES ANNUAL CPI 2.1% BY MARCH 2027 RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND SEES OFFICIAL CASH RATE AT 2.52% IN MARCH 2027 VERSUS 2.34% OCR ON HOLD AT 2.25 PERCENT AS INFLATION EXPECTED TO… Just in | RBNZ projects NZD's Trade-Weighted Index to reach approximately 68.0% by March 2027.

Annual consumers price inflation increased to 3 percent in the September quarter. However, with spare capacity in the economy, inflation is expected to fall to around 2 percent by mid-2026. Economic activity was weak over mid-2025 but is picking up. Lower interest rates are encouraging household spending, and the labour market is stabilising. The exchange rate has fallen, supporting exporters’ incomes. Global economic growth has benefited from strong AI-related investment but is expected to slow in 2026 as trade barriers weigh on ...

Annual consumers price index inflation is currently around the top of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band. However, with spare capacity in the economy and declining domestic inflation pressure, headline inflation is expected to return to around the 2 percent target mid-point by mid-2026. New Zealand’s economic recovery stalled in the second quarter of this year. Spending by households and businesses has been constrained by global economic policy uncertainty, falling employment, higher prices for some ...

The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to lower the OCR by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent. Annual consumers price index inflation increased to 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Inflation expectations across firms and households have also risen. However, core inflation is declining and there is spare productive capacity in the economy. These conditions are consistent with inflation returning to the mid-point of the 1 to 3 percent target band over the medium term. The New Zealand economy is recovering after a period of contraction. High commodity prices and lower interest rates are supporting overall economic activity RBNZ: INFLATION WITHIN TARGET BAND CORE INFLATION IS DECLINING SPARE CAPACITY IN ECONOMY WELL PLACED TO RESPOND TO DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS BOTH TARIFFS AND POLICY UNCERTAINTIES OVERSEAS TO MODERATE RECOVERY CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INFLATION RETURNING…

Annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band. Inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year. Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have ...