UK Retail Sales m/m

Markets continued repricing their expectations for rate cuts by the Fed next year after the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell press conference last week. The dovish pivot by the world’s most important central bank could be instrumental in driving price action over the next few months. US short-term rates are expected to fall below 4% next year from the current 5.25% – 5.50%, and this has given a strong bid into the holiday period to the benchmark S&P 500 index which is now closing in on its all—time highs. Consensus sees the first Fed ...

A raft of economic data due over the next week may well decide whether the Bank of England (BoE) hikes rates by another 25 basis points in May. So far, Bank officials have largely refused to be drawn either way, and the most recent March meeting kept the range of options wide open. Formally, the Bank has told us that any further tightening could be needed if we see fresh signs of “inflation persistence”. Officials generally felt that the test had been met by the time of the March meeting, where they hiked rates by 25bp. Nevertheless, ...

It was mostly quiet on Friday and on the weekend, with an initial push higher in yields and sell-off in equities largely reversing later in the session. Squaring and covering shorts ahead of today’s US President’s Day Holiday was cited for the reversal, as was some less hawkish messaging from the Fed’s Barkin, which talked up the merits of moving by 25bp increments, running counter to Mester and Bullard’s discussion of wanting a 50bp hike in February. The US 10yr yield at one point hit 3.93%, before more than retracing to close at ...

The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve. Much teeth-gashing, finger-pointing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell was blamed for denying that 75 bp hike was under consideration. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was blamed for keeping the 0.25% cap on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield. Even though European Central Bank President Lagarde had indicated previously that rates could be increased within weeks of the end of the bond purchases, many observers embraced it as a new ...