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The Forward View – Global: May 2024
Inflation in advanced economies remained essentially stable for the third straight month, at around 2.7% yoy. The stickiness of advanced economy inflation so far this year has reduced the likelihood of rapid policy rate cuts by central banks in 2024, which could negatively impact growth rates in 2025 and 2026. Trends in advanced economies were mixed in Q1 – with overall growth outside the US rebounding (despite a contraction in Japan), while US growth decelerated. Overall, we see weaker growth from the AEs in both 2024 and 2025, in large part due to restrictive monetary policy and fiscal policy headwinds. Recent ... (full story)