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BTC/USD Signal: Bitcoin Sits and Waits for the Next Catalyst
Bitcoin price was flat on Monday, continuing a consolidation phase that has been going on in the past few days. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 43,000, where it has been in the past few days. This price is much higher than last month’s low of 38,500. Bitcoin has remained in a tight range, a month after the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave its green light for six ETFs. Since then, inflows in these ETFs have remained steady. Blackrock’s IBIT ETF has seen over $2 billion in inflows from both retail and institutional investors. Bitcoin has also wavered as some investors have moved their assets from ... (full story)
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On May 6, 2022, I first published an essay explaining why I focus on long-term real rates to evaluate the overall stance of monetary policy, which includes effects from both the setting of the federal funds rate and changes to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Please see that essay for a discussion of why long-term real rates drive economic activity rather than short rates or nominal rates. On June 17, 2022, and September 26, 2023, I published updates to reflect actions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to tighten policy in order to bring inflation back to our target. This essay is an update to those earlier commentaries to assess where we are in our inflation fight and highlight some important questions policymakers face. Since my last update in September, two significant economic developments have occurred simultaneously: Inflation has fallen rapidly—more rapidly than most forecasters expected—and economic growth has proven remarkably resilient, even stepping up in the latter half of 2023. post: KASHKARI SAYS DATA ON ECONOMY ARE NOT “UNAMBIGUOUSLY POSITIVE,” WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKNESS INCLUDING RISING CONSUMER DELINQUENCIES post: FED’S KASHKARI: POSSIBLY HIGHER NEUTRAL RATE MEANS FED CAN TAKE MORE TIME TO ASSESS UPCOMING DATA BEFORE BEGINNING RATE CUTS WITH “LESS RISK” TO THE RECOVERY; HIGHER NEUTRAL RATE MEANS MONETARY POLICY MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT AS THOUGHT
The era of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is a chance to repair the decay in crypto markets caused by the collapse of the FTX exchange and its sister hedge fund Alameda ...
The Bitcoin market has exhibited limited activity during the recent trading sessions, reflecting a period of relative stagnation as participants await a resurgence of momentum. ...
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El Salvador president Nayib Bukele is set to lead the country for another five years after winning the election with an overwhelming majority. Preliminary results showed Bukele ...
Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.4 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 43 of the last 44 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In January, the Services PMI® registered 53.4 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher than December's seasonally adjusted reading of 50.5 percent. The composite index indicated growth in January for the 13th consecutive month after a seasonally adjusted reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 55.8 percent in January, matching the seasonally adjusted reading of 55.8 percent in December. The New Orders Index expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55 percent is 2.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.8 percent. "The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.4 percent, 2 post: *US ISM SERVICES PRICES-PAID INDEX RISES TO NEAR ONE-YEAR HIGHISM nonmanufacturing PMI for January 53.4 versus 52.0 estimate Prior month 50.5 • ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 53.4 versus 52.0 estimate • Nonmanufacturing business activity January 55.8 vs 55.8 last • Employment.50.5 vs 43.8 last month • New orders 55.0 vs 52.8 last month • Prices Paid 64.0 vs 57.4 last month. The US dollar has moved higher after the report with the EURUSD making a new session low at 1.0727. The GBPUSD is also making a new low trading down to 1.2527. The USDJPY is trading at 148.64 as it moves back toward the 148.80 resistance target area. In the US debt market, 10 year yield is trading up your 11 basis points at 4.142%. The two year yield is up nine basis points at 4.46%
post: ? GOOLSBEE: WON'T SPECULATE ON POTENTIAL FOR 50 BPS CUT post: CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/BBG BROADCAST: NEVER LIKE 'TYING OUR HANDS' ON PREDICTING WHAT FOMC WILL DO IN MARCH; INFLATION RPTS BEEN GOOD, HOPE FOR MORE #Goolsbee #ChiFed #FederalReserve #economy post: ? GOOLSBEE: STRONG JOBS DATA DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN OVERHEATING post: ? GOOLSBEE: INVERTED YIELD CURVE NOT RELIABLE RECESSION SIGN NOWFed's Goolsbee: March cut is unlikely (but does not rule it out either) March cut is unlikely • Economy has been quite strong • If we keep getting inflation going down despite strong jobs in GDP growth, then we might be in a period like mid-1990s • He does not want to rule out a March cut but does want to see more data and not tie the Fed's hands • Fed's goal is PCE measure of 2% • Inverted yield curve, as a rule of thumb, is not applicable as a recession indicator • Does not see widening problems in the regional banking system. Goolsbee tends to be more of a dove but seems to be straddling the fence as he speaks the facts.
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- Posted: Feb 5, 2024 8:44am
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 146