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Powell’s Cooling Job Market Narrative Just Got Chucked
A very strong job market and economy are more than acceptable trade-offs to not expecting rate cuts from the Federal Reserve any time soon. In fact, if this keeps up, we can’t rule out the return of rate hikes. Either way, as I have argued for a long time—but with rising conviction—I think markets continue to price rate cuts to be far too early and too large. The US job market entered 2024 by smashing expectations, especially all the stridently worded headlines that were sure the numbers would disappoint if not even turn negative because of weather and annual revisions. Combined with the early read on Q1 GDP ... (full story)