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Reconciling the New York and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys
On Tuesday, January 16, the general business conditions index in the New York Fed’s Empire State survey of manufacturing plunged 29.2 points to minus 43.7 in the January report. On Thursday, January 18, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey saw its general business conditions index rise 2.2 points to minus 10.6. How to reconcile that two neighboring Fed districts see such different results? And what are the implications for overall conditions in the factory sector? First to note is that the New York index has a strong tendency to fluctuate month-to-month, sometimes dramatically. It would be ... (full story)