-
US resilience suggests the Fed will wait until the second quarter before cutting rates
US retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in December, above the 0.4% consensus. Motor vehicles jumped 1.1% MoM with clothing up 1.5% and department stores reporting a 3% MoM gain. There was some offsetting weakness in furniture, electronics, gasoline and health/personal care. Meanwhile the control group, which excludes volatile components such as gasoline, building materials and autos and better correlates with broader consumer spending trends rose 0.8% MoM versus the 0.2% MoM consensus. This highlights that the US economy ended the year in decent shape with next week’s fourth quarter 2023 GDP report, we believe, ... (full story)