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Research Round-Up: October 2023
Digital asset markets may have seen relatively uneventful price action month-over-month, but they were not entirely immune to fluctuations throughout September. Bitcoin saw a drawdown of as much as 9%, followed closely by a rally of 8%, before ultimately finishing down around 3.5% in September. Ether followed a similar path, declining as much as 10% before recovering around 7% off a monthly low of $1,549 to finish down around 4% for September. This leads to a year-to-date (YTD) price appreciation of 63% for bitcoin and 38% for ether. Top headlines moving the markets this month include the Fed’s decision to leave ... (full story)
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Thank you, Professor Scobie. Thank you to the European Economics and Financial Centre for inviting me to speak and for the honor of referring to me as a "distinguished speaker." I have noticed that people started calling me "distinguished" only after my hair turned white. I suspect that "distinguished" is a polite way of saying you are old. My subject today is one I trust is of interest in this center of global finance—namely, the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy.1 It has been one year and seven months since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to rein in inflation, and there has been considerable progress. But uncertainties remain, both about the forces that will shape the economic outlook in the coming months and about whether monetary policy has reached a level that is sufficiently restrictive to support continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2 percent inflation. Let me share my thinking about what recent economic data can, and in some cases, cannot tell us about the outlook and the appropriate setting for monetary policy. The data in the past few months has been overwhelmingly positive for both of the FOMC's goals of maximum employment and stable prices. Economic activity and the labor market have been strong, with what looks like growth well above trend and unemployment near a 50-year low. Meanwhile, there has been continued, gradual progress in lowering inflation, and moderation in wage growth. This is great news, and while I tend to be an optimist, things are looking a little too good to be true, so it makes me think that something's gotta give. Either growth moderates, fostering conditions that support continued progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective, or growth doesn't, possibly undermining that progress. But which is going to give—the real side of the economy or the nominal side? I find myself thinking about two possible scenarios for the economy in the coming months. In the first, the real side of the economy slows. This is the scenario broadly reflected in the September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) by FOMC participants, w post: WALLER: TOO SOON TO TELL IF MORE POLICY RATE ACTION IS NEEDED WALLER: MORE ACTION ON POLICY RATE WOULD BE NEEDED IF DEMAND, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY KEEP UP RECENT PACE post: WALLER: IF REAL ECONOMY SLOWS, CAN HOLD POLICY RATE STEADY #News #Markets #live post: Fed governor Chris Waller blesses a November pause: After that, if growth cools along the lines of the Sept SEP, then stay on hold But if strong demand stalls recent progress on inflation, failing to respond "in a timely way” risks “unwinding the work that we have done to date" pic.twitter.com/EYJPsUWwZr
post: GENSLER: SEC STILL SPEAKING WITH FIRMS SEEKING SPOT BITCOIN ETF post: GENSLER SAYS SEC IS STILL WEIGHING BITCOIN ETF PROPOSALS
Those closely following the quest for an exchange-traded fund that would hold Bitcoin have Friday circled on their calendars. That’s when a DC court will issue a mandate that ...
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post: WALLER: NO ONE EXPECTS ANY KIND OF RATE CUT SOON post: FED'S WALLER: WE NEED TO SEE HOW INFLATION PROGRESSES IS IN 6-12 MONTHS, THEN SEE ABOUT CUTTING RATES. post: FED'S WALLER: IF WE SAW INFLATION COMING DOWN TO 2.5%, THE TAYLOR RULE WOULD SAY TO CUT RATES.
post: FED'S WILLIAMS: I'M NOT DECLARING VICTORY OVER INFLATION, BUT I SEE PROGRESS. post: FED'S WILLIAMS: STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO GETTING INFLATION BACK TO TARGET. post: FED'S WILLIAMS: PATH OF MONETARY POLICY DEPENDS ON THE DATA #News #Markets #live post: FED'S WILLIAMS: THE FED NEEDS RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY FOR A WHILE TO COOL INFLATION.
The European Central Bank shifted to the next stage of its digital-euro project — preparing the ground to issue the currency in the coming years, though a final decision has yet ...
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- Posted: Oct 18, 2023 12:10pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 269