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Gold Price Rebound Brings Test of 50-Day SMA
The price of gold appears to be recovering after taking out the April low ($1950), but failure to trade back above the 50-Day SMA ($1992) may undermine the recent rebound in the precious metal as the moving average no longer reflects a positive slope. Gold Price Rebound Brings Test of 50-Day SMA The price of gold trades to a fresh weekly high ($1978) while longer-term US Treasury yields slip to fresh weekly lows, and the precious metal may stage a larger rebound as Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson, a permanent voting-member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warns that ‘higher interest rates and ... (full story)
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post at 1:29pm: *Fed’s Bullard: Prospect for More Disinflation Good, Not GuaranteedBullard: Is Monetary Policy Sufficiently Restrictive? Since mid-2021, inflation has been running well above the 2% target set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 In an effort to put downward pressure on inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC began a series of increases to the federal funds rate (i.e., the policy rate), with the aim of making monetary policy “sufficiently restrictive” to return inflation to 2% over time, as noted in several of the committee’s post-meeting statements since November. The current range for the federal funds rate stands at 5%-5.25% following the increase at the May FOMC meeting. How can we know if the policy rate is at a level that could be considered sufficiently restrictive? In a recent presentation, I used monetary policy rules to examine this question.2 Monetary Policy Rules as a Guidepost Monetary policy rules provide explicit recommendations for the level of the policy rate given macroeconomic conditions, which then serve as a guidepost for where policy should be. One of the most famous monetary policy rules is the “Taylor rule,” which was developed by John Taylor of Stanford University and has been widely accepted in monetary policy discussions over the last 30 years.3 Versions of his rule (“Taylor-type rules”) have been tested in commonly used macroeconomic models and have been argued to characterize close-to-optimal monetary policy. A Taylor-type rule requires:
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- Posted: Jun 1, 2023 1:29pm
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 259