While the most prudent course of action may be to pause and digest the fallout from regional banking woes, the Federal Reserve is focused on inflation and will look to hike 25bp if conditions allow. With both higher borrowing costs and reduced access to credit set to weigh on growth and inflation, we continue to expect rate cuts in the second half of this year. Banking stresses are a de facto tightening It has been a remarkable few days in financial markets. As recently as 7 March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a 50bp rate hike, citing concerns that “unacceptably high” inflation could last for longer ... (full story)