As the Fed's policy-setting committee gathers for a two-day meeting Tuesday, it is being forced to wrestle with an uncomfortable question: Is its interest rate policy really doing as much work as the Fed itself has assumed? Why it matters: The evidence that the Fed's target rate is restricting economic activity enough to bring inflation down to its 2% target is considerably more muddled than it was a few months ago. • That is taking imminent interest rate cuts off the table and has made the timing of their eventual arrival uncertain. It means rising odds that the Fed's next move will be a rate hike, not a rate cut, ... (full story)