The US economy powered ahead in the first quarter, as strong hiring activity and gradually waning inflationary pressures boosted consumer spending, keeping growth on solid footing. In our view, much of that strength will last, supported by changing demographic trends, leading us to increase our 2024 full-year GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in real, or inflation-adjusted, GDP terms. Robust economic activity has caused inflation to cool more slowly, though we still expect price pressures to ease as the year progresses. But the process will likely be slower than previously forecast, and that will likely affect the path of ... (full story)