Dollar Dives In Dovish Week; Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar
Cooling inflation data dominated the price action this week, but Citi's US macro surprise index surged to a fresh cycle high helped by sentiment and labor market signals...
Source: Bloomberg
Sparking a dovish reaction in STIRs, with July fully-priced-in for a 25bps hike and then nothing to year-end, and then beginning to price in a rate-cut in Jan '24...
Source: Bloomberg
That dovish shift sent the dollar reeling lower and everything else soaring.
Nasdaq and Small Caps outperformed on the week but all the majors were significantly higher with The Dow and S&P managing greater-than-2% gains on the week...
The mega-short-squeeze (up 15% in 6 days) seemed to end today as 'most shorted' stocks were sold and couldn't catch a bid...
Source: Bloomberg
While the week was exuberant in stocks, we do note some anomalies today with NVDA giving up its earlier panic-bid to record highs and ending in the red..
Interestingly, 0-DTE traders were aggressive call-buyers in the afternoon as NVDA sold off...
Meme stocks melted up for 6 straight days but today saw that fun-and-games come to an abrupt end...
Source: Bloomberg
Banks were bid early on but even JPM gave it all back by the close and Citi was a shitshow...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were down significantly on the week (biggest weekly drop in yields since March), with the long-end underperforming, but Friday saw a noteworthy sell-off with yields backing up 8-12bps in the belly...
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (5s30s) steepened dramatically this week (3rd biggest weekly steepening since Lehman), getting very close to un-inverting...
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar index tumbled for 5 of the last 6 days, with its second biggest weekly decline (-2%) since March 2020. The Bloomberg Dollar Index is back at pre-COVID-Lockdown safe-haven-spike levels...
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto had a mixed week, with everything soaring on the heels of Ripple's victory against SEC but this afternoon saw everything puking back their gains.
Bitcoin pushed up near $32,000 on Thursday and then plunged back near $30,000 today...
Source: Bloomberg
Ripple remained up over 45% on the week, but well off its highs (up over 90% at its peak on Thursday)...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver soared higher this week (dramatically outperforming gold), NatGas was lower on the week with Crude and Copper up solidly...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver's big gains relative to gold slammed the Gold/Silver ratio down to 2023 lows...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI traded above $77 this week, breaking out of its two-month range, before fading a little today...
Finally, we note that Tech valuations are back at their highs on a standalone basis and near record highs relative to the market...
Source: Bloomberg
And US equities remain notably decoupled from bank reserves...
Source: Bloomberg
Is it different this time?
