Of the three G3 central banks that meet in the days ahead, the market is the most confident of a rate hike by the European Central Bank. The market sees a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve. However, the idea of a skip, a topic which even Fed officials have broached, would seem to pre-commit to another hike, and this is not typically the central bank's modus operandi. Moreover, it may be difficult for the Fed to resume hikes in July if inflation falls as we expect toward 3.2%-3.3% in this month (due July 12) and the economic activity slows. Still, the Chair Powell may go to pains to underscore that a pause is ... (full story)