Just over a month ago, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that after 500bp of rate hikes over a 14 month period, interest rates may finally have entered restrictive territory and the Fed could pause at the June meeting to take some time to evaluate the effects. Markets took this as a signal that we may already be at the peak with the fear that the combination of high borrowing costs and tighter lending conditions could prompt a recession with inflation falling swiftly back towards target. On 4 May, Fed funds futures contracts were pricing in 86bp of interest rate cuts by year end and the target range heading ... (full story)