US job growth strongly beat consensus yet again (see table). As chart 1 shows, the pattern of serially underestimating job growth is rather unflattering to the community of economists and market participants that keeps wishing for weak reports but keeps getting routinely beaten on estimates of job growth. Consensus has underestimated payrolls in all but one month since the start of last year. The sum total of this underestimation bias amounts to missing about 1.9 million of the jobs that have been created over this time and so we’re dealing with a sizeable bias. That’s comparing consensus estimates to initial nonfarm ... (full story)