Way back in 2013, I wrote a post "Predicting the Next Recession. In that 2013 post, I wrote: The next recession will probably be caused by one of the following (from least likely to most likely): 3) An exogenous event such as a pandemic, significant military conflict, disruption of energy supplies for any reason, a major natural disaster (meteor strike, super volcano, etc), and a number of other low probability reasons. All of these events are possible, but they are unpredictable, and the probabilities are low that they will happen in the next few years or even decades. emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of ... (full story)