Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reckons the US economy can skirt recession. But the odds are stacked against him — thanks to banking, politics, and even the weather. In Powell’s view, the gravity-defying strength of American labor markets — on display again in jobs data published Friday, which showed a bumper increase last month — is smoothing the way for a soft landing, even after five percentage points of interest-rate hikes in little over a year. “It’s possible that this time is really different,” the Fed chief told reporters last week after raising rates for a tenth straight time. Still, a labor market that ... (full story)