University of Michigan sentiment index for March 2023 (preliminary) • Prior month 67.0% • preliminary index for sentiment 63.4 versus 67.0 estimate • current conditions 66.4 versus 70.0 estimate • expectations index 61.5 versus 64.5 estimate • one year inflation expectations 3.8% versus 4.1% last month. Lowest since April 2021 • five year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month. Lowest since April 2021 (full story)

Consumer sentiment in the US weakened in early March with the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index declining to 63.4 from 67 in February. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 67. "Year-ahead inflation expectations receded from 4.1% in February to 3.8%, the lowest reading since April 2021, but remain well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic," the publication further read. "Long-run inflation expectations edged down to 2.8%, falling below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for only the second time in the last 20 months." Surveys of Consumers Director ... (full story)

The most important aspect of the UMIch sentiment survey continues to be 'inflation expectations' which slid further to 3.8% in the next 12 months (lowest since April 2021) and 2.8% for 5-10Y inflation exp... {chart} However, UMich notes that with ongoing turbulence in the financial sector and uncertainty over the Fed’s possible policy response, inflation expectations are likely to be volatile in the months ahead. The overall headline sentiment dropped more than expected - down for the first time in four months {chart} Sentiment declines were concentrated among lower-income, less-educated, and younger consumers, as ... (full story)