The ECB followed through on its long-communicated guidance with a 50bps hike today, but accompanied this with very limited signaling regarding the future policy path, against a backdrop of financial stability concerns. Had this meeting taken place just one week ago, the bank may have sounded a more hawkish note given today’s revision higher to its core inflation and GDP growth forecasts (table 1). {table} With the statement and Lagarde’s presser giving us little to go on in terms of what to expect at the May decision, we leave our forecast unchanged, seeing a 25bps hike at the May meeting. The EUR initially rallied ... (full story)